MUDANÇAS DECLARADAS NA CAPTURA, PERDA DE PETRECHOS E RISCO DE ACIDENTE NA PESCA ARTESANAL DO MÉDIO RIO TOCANTINS

ONIVALDO DA ROCHA MENDES FILHO; Diogo Martins Nunes; Israel Hidenburgo Aniceto Cintra

doi:10.18817/repesca.v17i1.4681

Authors

ONIVALDO DA ROCHA MENDES FILHO Secretaria da Pesca e Aquicultura do Tocantins
Diogo Martins Nunes
Israel Hidenburgo Aniceto Cintra

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18817/repesca.v17i1.4681

Keywords:

local ecological knowledge, hydropower, fisheries monitoring, reservoir operation, secondary data, occupational safety

Abstract

Inland small-scale fisheries lack standardized data and face external pressures poorly captured by conventional monitoring. This study asks how retrospective accounts from fishers can be converted into verifiable monitoring hypotheses when no landing, effort or hydrological series exist. We analysed secondary data from 418 professional artisanal fishers of the middle Tocantins River, Brazil, ceded as an anonymized matrix. Among the 407 still fishing in the area, 350 (86.0%) declared a lower recent than historical monthly category and four (1.0%) a higher one. Directional asymmetry was strong (exact sign test, p < 0.001) and margins of the paired 4 × 4 table differed (Stuart–Maxwell χ² = 294.59; df = 3; p < 0.001). Because the questions anchored the periods to problems attributed to the gates, this is a declared contrast, not a causal effect. Material loss was reported by 92.6% and accident risk by 69.4%, with strong co-occurrence (adjusted PR 3.34; 95% CI 1.72–6.49). The study estimates no stock change. Its contribution is a replicable procedure: anchor accounts in time, separate perception, pattern and hypothesis, and derive variables to be measured prospectively.

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